NIFTY Option Selling Desk

● LIVE NSE price at 12:53 IST (intraday — signals are provisional until close) · Generated 16 Oct 2026 12:53 IST
Aaj ka faisla
NO NEW SELLING
Selling score -2  ·  Trend: Sideways (+0)
Suggested structure
IRON CONDOR
Market bias BEARISH (-25): sell both sides (with hedges)
Best expiry
24 Nov 2026 · 39d
Short: 22,200 / 24,400
Market bias (deep analysis)
BEARISH
Score -25 / 100 · 55% of weight agrees · RSI 52
−100 BearishSidewaysBullish +100
Option-selling side
Both sides (Iron Condor) — or wait if squeeze/breakout warnings present

Bias breakdown — 6 categories

Category & signalsWtScorePts
Trend (multi-timeframe)
▲ Daily: Close vs EMA20 → above
▼ Daily: EMA20 vs EMA50 → below
▼ Daily: EMA50 vs EMA200 → below
▼ Daily: EMA50 slope (10D) -317 pts
▼ Weekly: price vs 10W EMA (23,330)
▼ Weekly: 10W EMA vs 20W EMA
30
-21
Market structure
▼ Lower High + Lower Low (downtrend structure)
• Inside last swing range 22,180 – 23,489
25
-17
Momentum
▲ RSI14 = 52 (neutral)
▲ MACD histogram +86 (rising)
▼ 20D rate of change -0.6%
20
+8
Breakout
• Inside 20D range 22,180 – 23,489
10
+0
Patterns & candles
• No clear pattern
10
+0
VIX vs price
▲ NIFTY up, VIX down — healthy rally (5D: NIFTY +2.7%, VIX -3.1%)
5
+5
Total bias100-25

Market structure

Lower High + Lower Low (downtrend structure)
DateSwingPriceType
08 Oct 26Low22,180LL
22 Sep 26High23,489LH
16 Sep 26Low23,116LL
26 Aug 26High24,379LH
19 Aug 26Low24,026HL
03 Aug 26High24,774HH
24 Jul 26Low23,606Swing Low
17 Jul 26High24,367Swing High

Chart patterns

No classic chart pattern detected on recent swings.
Last candle: None

Support / resistance zones (from swing clusters)

ZoneTouchesDistance
R24,026 – 24,77410×1,284 pts · 4.7 ATR
R23,489 – 23,8055×569 pts · 2.1 ATR
R23,070 – 23,2633×22 pts · 0.1 ATR
●23,128spot
S22,180 – 22,1832×947 pts · 3.5 ATR

Keep short CE above a resistance zone and short PE below a support zone where possible.

Bias score history · 120 days

Bias score+15 bullish-15 bearish
-106-61-16297427 Apr23 Jul16 Oct+15 bullish-15 bearishBias score

Did this bias work in the past? (honest backtest, last ~500 days)

When bias wasDaysAvg 10D move% up 10D Avg 20D move% up 20DAvg |20D move|
All days (baseline)510-0.20%43%-0.38%51%2.63%
Bullish (≥ +15)207-0.22%46%-0.43%54%2.12%
Sideways (−15..+15)110-0.87%29%-1.73%33%3.40%
Bearish (≤ −15)193+0.21%49%+0.49%58%2.75%

Compare each row with the baseline. If "Bullish" rows aren't clearly better than baseline, the bias has no real edge on this data — trust it less. Bias is recalculated for every past day using only data available that day (no look-ahead).

NIFTY
23,128
+0.57% · 20D -0.6%
India VIX (≈ 30D IV)
13.93
5D -3.1% · 66th pctl
Historical vol HV20 / HV10
16.0%
HV10 18.0%
Vol premium VIX÷HV20
0.87×
>1.05 favours selling
ADX14 (trend strength)
40
<20 range · >30 strong trend
ATR14 (daily range)
271
1.17% of spot

Selling checklist

CheckValuePtsMeaning
Volatility premium (VIX / HV20)0.87x-2Market moving MORE than options imply - avoid selling
VIX percentile (1Y)66%+1Premiums rich vs last year
VIX 5-day change-3.1%+0Stable
Recent shock (max daily move, 5D)1.7%+0No large shock
Trend strength (ADX14)40-1Strong trend but unclear side - condor risky
Absolute VIX level13.9+0OK
Squeeze / breakout riskBB width 79th pctl+0No compression
Event in next 10 daysNone listed+0Add events in CONFIG -> EVENTS
Total-2≥ +2 favourable · 0..1 neutral · < 0 avoid

NIFTY 6 months · swings · S/R zones · short strikes (24 Nov 2026)

NIFTYEMA20EMA50Short CE 24,400Short PE 22,200+1SD-1SD
21,91322,66923,42424,18024,93627 Apr23 Jul16 OctShort CE 24,400Short PE 22,200+1SD-1SDNIFTYEMA20EMA50HLHHHLLHLLLHLL

Expiry-wise trade plan (theoretical, VIX as IV)

27 Oct 2026 11 days
1 SD expected move±559 pts
68% range22,568 – 23,687
SELL CE 23,800 ~₹39 · Δ0.14
BUY CE 24,100 ~₹13 · Δ0.05
SELL PE 22,600 ~₹43 · Δ0.15
BUY PE 22,300 ~₹13 · Δ0.05
Est. net credit₹56 pts · ₹3,632/lot
Max loss / lot₹15,868
Breakeven22,544 / 23,856
Est. POP76%
Theta / day / lot~₹380
Lots @ 2.0% risk0 — max loss > risk budget
✅ Short CE above resistance 23,150 (buffer)
ℹ Support 22,181 is below short PE — no S/R buffer
24 Nov 2026 39 days Ideal DTE
1 SD expected move±1,053 pts
68% range22,075 – 24,181
SELL CE 24,400 ~₹86 · Δ0.16
BUY CE 24,700 ~₹50 · Δ0.10
SELL PE 22,200 ~₹78 · Δ0.14
BUY PE 21,900 ~₹42 · Δ0.08
Est. net credit₹71 pts · ₹4,644/lot
Max loss / lot₹14,856
Breakeven22,129 / 24,471
Est. POP73%
Theta / day / lot~₹116
Lots @ 2.0% risk0 — max loss > risk budget
✅ Short CE above resistance 23,150 (buffer)
ℹ Support 22,181 is below short PE — no S/R buffer
29 Dec 2026 74 days
1 SD expected move±1,451 pts
68% range21,677 – 24,578
SELL CE 25,100 ~₹104 · Δ0.14
BUY CE 25,400 ~₹71 · Δ0.11
SELL PE 22,000 ~₹115 · Δ0.15
BUY PE 21,700 ~₹74 · Δ0.10
Est. net credit₹74 pts · ₹4,828/lot
Max loss / lot₹14,672
Breakeven21,926 / 25,174
Est. POP73%
Theta / day / lot~₹61
Lots @ 2.0% risk0 — max loss > risk budget
✅ Short CE above resistance 23,150 (buffer)
✅ Short PE below support 22,181 (buffer)

Premiums, POP and Greeks are Black-Scholes estimates using India VIX. Real put premiums are usually higher (skew). Lot size 65 and wing 300 pts — edit in CONFIG.

India VIX vs actual volatility (HV20) · 1 year

India VIXHV20
4%11%17%24%31%Oct 25Apr 26Oct 26India VIXHV20

Gap between VIX (blue) and HV20 (purple) = volatility premium you collect as a seller.

Key levels

20D High23,489
20D Low22,180
60D High24,774
60D Low22,180
EMA2022,890
EMA5023,313

Open positions monitor

No open positions. Add them in positions.json (see positions.example.json) to get exit/adjust alerts.

Rules (non-negotiable)

  1. Never sell naked — always buy the hedge leg (spread / iron condor).
  2. Enter only on 30–50 DTE expiry; avoid entering just before major events.
  3. Book profit at ~50% of credit received.
  4. Exit if loss reaches 2× credit, or a short strike delta crosses 0.30.
  5. Close or roll when DTE < 21 (gamma risk rises sharply).
  6. Max loss per trade ≤ 2.0% of capital; total open risk ≤ 3× that.
  7. Verify actual premium, OI, bid-ask spread and margin on broker before placing order.

Signal history (last 15 runs)

DateNIFTYVIXVRPScoreVerdictStrategy
2026-10-1623,12813.90.87-2NO NEW SELLINGIRON CONDOR